A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries
Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for...
Được lưu tại giá sách ảo:
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| Định dạng: | Báo cáo |
| Ngôn ngữ: | en_US |
| Xuất bản : |
IMF Working Paper
Janu
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| Chủ đề: | |
| Truy cập trực tuyến: | http://hdl.handle.net/11742/39076 |
| Từ khóa (tag): |
| Tóm tắt: | Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE)
structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic
multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth
and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential
growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline
appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were
associated with common external factors, including trading partners’ slow potential growth, but
also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest
that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region. |
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Phương pháp phân tích kinh tế và môi trường thông qua input-output: I/O modelling\