A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries

Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for...

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Main Author:	Jiří Podpiera
Other Authors:	Faezeh Raei
Format:	Báo cáo
Language:	en_US
Published:	IMF Working Paper Janu
Subjects:	Potential output Output gap Emerging Markets
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/11742/39076
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author	Jiří Podpiera
author2	Faezeh Raei
author_facet	Faezeh Raei Jiří Podpiera
author_sort	Jiří Podpiera
collection	DSpaceTVQH
description	Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were associated with common external factors, including trading partners’ slow potential growth, but also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region.
format	Báo cáo
id	oai:http:--thuvienso.quochoi.vn:11742-39076
institution	Thư viện số
language	en_US
publishDate	Janu
publisher	IMF Working Paper
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:http:--thuvienso.quochoi.vn:11742-390762017-09-06T02:31:21Z A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries Jiří Podpiera Faezeh Raei Ara Stepanyan Potential output Output gap Emerging Markets Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were associated with common external factors, including trading partners’ slow potential growth, but also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region. January 2017 Báo cáo http://hdl.handle.net/11742/39076 en_US IMF Working Paper application/pdf IMF Working Paper IMF Working Paper
spellingShingle	Potential output Output gap Emerging Markets Jiří Podpiera A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries
title	A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries
title_full	A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries
title_fullStr	A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries
title_full_unstemmed	A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries
title_short	A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries
title_sort	fresh look at potential output in central eastern and southeastern european countries
topic	Potential output Output gap Emerging Markets
url	http://hdl.handle.net/11742/39076
work_keys_str_mv	AT jiripodpiera afreshlookatpotentialoutputincentraleasternandsoutheasterneuropeancountries AT jiripodpiera freshlookatpotentialoutputincentraleasternandsoutheasterneuropeancountries

A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries

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